Saxo Bank announces 10 Black Swan Outrageous Predictions 2011

By on Dec 21, 2010 in Economy, Opinion, World Comments

Saxo Bank of Denmark announces on Monday its 10 Black Swan Outrageous Predictions 2011, in which three out their ten predictions for this year came to reality, which is usually four out of ten in the past years.

Saxo Bank’s Black Swan Predictions is inspired by Lebanese philosophical essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and also known as the annual list of event that is being famous every year particularly when it predicted the economy crisis in 2008.

Although Saxo Bank says their predictions can be very useful, they emphasized that it is not a scientific exercise and the predictions were not designed to be represent the entire bank’s core view.

In general, the ‘Black Swan’ predictions are usually related to the world economy and forex rates, but next year’s predictions raised eyebrows after it added the issue of supposed desire of Steve Jobs to buy Facebook.

Below is the summary of Saxo Bank’s 10 Black Swan Predictions for 2011, taken from the pdf file of the bank’s post.

1. US Congress blocks Bernanke’s QE3

2. Apple buys Facebook

3. U.S. dollar index tops 100

4. U.S. 30-year Treasury yield falls to 3%

5. Australian dollar plunges against the pound

6. Crude oil gushes above $100/barrel, than falls by one-third

7. Natural gas surges 50%

8. Gold goes to $1800/oz

9. S&P 500 reaches a record high

10. Russia’s RTS Index nearly doubles to 2500

The full details of the predictions can be found at Saxo Bank’s official website.



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