Gallup Presidential Polls 2012: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll Suspended Due to Outages

By on Nov 2, 2012 in International, Politics, United States, World Comments

After latest Presidential polls results were published, Gallup suspended its 2012 presidential daily tracking poll due to outages in several key US states due to Hurricane Sandy, according to a report at Gallup.com on Wednesday, October 31, 2012. Gallup presidential polls were stopped since Monday, October 29, 2012.

Frank Newport

Frank NewPort
Image Credit: Gallup

Based on the report written by Gallup Editor-in-Chief, Frank Newport, they suspended their “national daily tracking of the presidential election campaign as of Monday, Oct. 29. Basically, we reached the conclusion that Superstorm Sandy had compromised the ability of a national survey to provide a nationally representative assessment of the nation’s voting population.

Hurricane Sandy has flooded and cut power in several US states.

Reports estimated that about eight million households were affected by the outage. Even mobile services went down in several areas.

Newport further explained that problems brought about by Superstorm Sandyare obviously not uniformly distributed across the country but are concentrated in parts of the Middle Atlantic and Northeast and in specific areas within these regions. Thus, while we could have achieved the targeted number of completed interviews in these regions, those interviews would not have been representative of the overall population of the area. New York state is a prime example. While it would be possible to complete the proportionate number of interviews in New York state, those interviews would be skewed disproportionately upstate, not in New York City and Long Island.

In order to have a realistic presidential poll result, Gallup data “are weighted to match the demographic characteristics of the population as a whole, including weights for telephone use now that interviewing involves both land lines and cell phones. But it is impossible to adequately weight to compensate for large segments of the population who cannot be reached at all in a survey, or in very low percentages, and whose opinions may have changed from previous, pre-storm measures.

Newport revealed that Gallup is planning to resume its presidential polls on Thursday, November 1, until Sunday, November 3.

Election day for the 2012 US Presidential elections will be on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.



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